MY LIFE IN JAPAN a blog from kyoto for friends and family

This is an interesting, and as far as I can tell accurate background article on putative prime-minister-to-be Shinzo Abe. I will add some comments later, but to bring everyone up to speed:


The article is from The Star, a malaysian newspaper.

ANALYSIS -- Japan's Abe may temper ideology with pragmatism
By Linda Sieg. September 14, 2006.
TOKYO (REUTERS/Toshiyuki Aizawa)(Reuters)

Admirers see Japan's Shinzo Abe as a forceful man of principle who will revive traditional values and help Japan take its rightful place on the world stage.

Critics fear he is a conservative ideologue who could lead the country down a dangerous nationalist path.

Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe, who is expected to become the nation's next prime minister, speaks during a campaign tour for leadership of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in Atsugi, west of Tokyo

But Abe's performance as he prepares to become prime minister suggests, some analysts say, that he may be a more complex mixture of ideology and pragmatism than critics or fans suspect.

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"Until recently, he seemed to be very simplistic," said Jun Iio at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies. "Instead, he's trying to achieve consensus and is not as simplistic as people thought."

Analysts cite as a sign of pragmatism Abe's recent refusal to say whether he would pay his respects as prime minister at the Yasukuni Shrine for war dead, despite his earlier clear advocacy of leaders' pilgrimages to the controversial Tokyo monument.

China sees Yasukuni as a symbol of Japan's past militarism and has refused to hold summits with outgoing Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi since April 2005 because of his visits there.

But Abe appears to want to leave the door open to Beijing by declining to say if he would follow suit. "Abe is trying to give the Chinese something to see if they will give something back," said Robert Feldman, chief economist at Morgan Stanley in Tokyo.

Campaigning under the slogan "Beautiful Country, Japan", the 51-year-old Abe looks set to cruise to victory in a Sept. 20 Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership contest, ensuring his election as premier by virtue of the party's grip on parliament.

Abe, currently chief cabinet secretary, is already popular with many voters for his tough stance towards North Korea on the emotive issue of Japanese kidnapped decades ago by Pyongyang, and for his image as a soft-spoken, well-bred member of the elite.

VIRTUAL POPULARITY

Many analysts say Abe lacks Koizumi's ability to make quick, top-down decisions as well as his charisma and knack for political theatre, making some wonder how long his high ratings will last.

"Half of Abe's popularity is virtual. He is popular because he is popular," Iio said. "So we don't know if he will be able to maintain that popularity, or revive it when it sinks."

Koizumi won points with voters by battling the LDP's old guard over reform.

The more consensual Abe is set to take over with overwhelming support from LDP lawmakers and rank-and-file members who either back his policies or are jumping on his bandwagon.

Critics and admirers agree Abe -- poised to become Japan's first prime minister born after World War Two -- has a consistent ideology, largely inherited from his grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi.

"He has a historical philosophy. He has a philosophy about how a nation should be, how the world should be, and what the future should be," Hisahiko Okazaki, a former diplomat who is close to Abe, told Reuters. "That's different from Koizumi."

Kishi, imprisoned but never tried as a war criminal after World War Two, became prime minister in 1957.

He was an early advocate of rewriting the U.S.-drafted, pacifist constitution and reviving Japan's diplomatic autonomy, both key planks in Abe's policy platform now.

Until Abe joined Koizumi's cabinet, he belonged to a band of lawmakers affiliated with a lobby group that wants the prime minister and emperor to visit Yasukuni, preserve Japan's males-only imperial succession tradition, revise the constitution and put patriotism back in school curriculums.

POST-WAR REGIME

Abe himself speaks of "shedding the post-World War Two regime", a legacy of the U.S. occupation that conservatives argue deprived Japan of national pride and weakened traditional mores.

He has repeatedly said that the responsibility of Japanese leaders convicted as war criminals by an Allied tribunal should be left to future historians to judge, and has prayed at Yasukuni, where those wartime leaders are honoured with war dead.

"He has a lot of dissatisfaction and frustration with the post-war regime," said Yoshihide Soeya, a Keio University professor of international relations. "But practically, his ideology cannot be translated directly into policies.

Japanese voters, whose top concern is their creaking pension system, might well be uncomfortable with an overtly nationalist agenda despite a drift to the right under Koizumi.

And if Abe were to reject the verdict of the U.S.-led Allied war crimes trial, that would anger security ally Washington.

Said Keio's Soeya: "Either he will adopt realistic policies, or he will hit a wall and have a short-lived administration."

Copyright © 2005 Reuters

Labels: japanese politics